The midterm races to watch if you care about money, Musk, and the AI boom

Michael Gonzalez/Getty; Brandon Bell/Getty; BI The midterms will be, in part, a referendum on AI and Big Tech backlash. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, in particular, has a lot at stake. Here are the key races that we're watching. The 2026 midterms have arrived. Beyond control of Congress, Tuesday's election will illustrate the extent of Silicon Valley's political power and the breadth of the AI backlash. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, in particular, has a lot at stake, with record donations powering a last-minute effort to save a Texas Senate seat and perhaps the GOP majority, too. In addition to the candidates, there are big ballot questions looming, none more so than the California wealth tax fight. Here's what we're watching. Ohio Senate Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican from Ohio, walks past President Donald Trump Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Candidates: Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican; former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat; Bill Redpath, a libertarian; and Greg Levy, an independent Where it stands: Husted, a former lieutenant governor, is trying to hang on to Vice President JD Vance's Senate seat, but he's facing a fierce challenge from Brown, a former three-term senator who is seeking to return to Congress. Brown has criticized Husted for his previous support for data center development. Husted has said the issue should be left to communities and no longer supports offering tax incentives for new data center construction. Earlier this summer, Senate Republicans' campaign arm warned AI labs that if Husted goes down "and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one." Polls close: 7:30 p.m. EST The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up." History: President Donald Trump won the state by 11 points. Brown lost to now-Sen. Bernie Moreno, a Republican, by just under 4 points. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Mark Schiefelbein/AP Texas Senate Candidates: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican; State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat; Ted Brown, a libertarian Where it stands: Paxton is hoping to keep the seat in Republican hands after Trump's endorsement pushed him over Sen. John Cornyn following a bitter primary and runoff. Cornyn warned that if Paxton won, Republicans would have to spend significant sums to help an officeholder saddled with scandals, impeachment, and a divorce on "biblical grounds." Enter Musk. The world's richest man has been frequently trashing Talarico on X. More importantly, Musk has donated at least $158 million that has been routed to a pro-Paxton super PAC. Polls close: Most polls in the state close at 8 p.m. EST, but for locations in the Mountain Time Zone they close at 9 p.m. EST. The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up." History: In 2024, President Donald Trump won the state by roughly 14 points. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican, won reelection by just under 9 points. No Texas Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994. Michigan Democratic US Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed Jeff Kowalsky/ AFP via Getty Images Michigan Senate Candidates: Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat; former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican; Douglas P. Marsh, Green Party; Lydia Christensen, Libertarian Party Where it stands: No race compares to the drama of the Michigan Senate race. On Sunday, Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed after a bitter primary, reversed herself and issued a last-minute endorsement of Rogers. Beyond the headlines, the race offers some interesting policy contrasts. Echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders (and Trump), El-Sayed has called for the government to take equity stakes in AI companies. El-Sayed also wants to force tech giants like Microsoft to divest from AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Rogers, the Republican hopeful, has called for a pause on data center development in the state. If Republicans want to hold the majority, Rogers will almost certainly need to flip the seat. Polls close: Most polls in the state close at 8 p.m. EST. For counties in the Central Time Zone, polls close at 9 p.m EST. The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Lean Democrat." History: In 2024, Trump won by just over 1 point. At the same time, Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly beat Rogers by roughly 202,000 votes. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994. Michigan 7th District Candidates: Rep. Tom Barrett, a Republican; Sunrise Movement cofounder William Lawrence, a Democrat; Shane Dedrick, Green Party Where it stands: Barrett is seeking reelection in a southern Michigan district centered around Lansing. William Lawrence, a cofounder of the progressive climate-focused organization Sunrise Movement, has tried to tie Barrett to a proposed $1 billion hyperscale data center near Mason, Michigan. Barrett has said that local officials should be able to make decisions about data centers, contrasting his views with Lawrence's support of a data center moratorium. The outlook: Cook Political Rep