Elon Musk, angry voters, and the AI backlash: What's at stake in the 2026 midterms

RYAN MURPHY/Getty Images; BI The 2026 midterm elections are here. Elon Musk has spent record sums to try to help Republicans hold onto their narrow majorities. History and polls show it could be a big night for Democrats. Americans are angry about affordability. The 2026 midterms will show who else will join President Donald Trump in paying the price. Trump has become so unpopular that the map of competitive races extends to Texas, Ohio, and even Kansas. Once considered unlikely, Democrats could sweep Republicans out of Congress. With even one house, Democrats can create headaches that stretch far beyond the White House. The very tech and business elite that cozied up to Trump ahead of his return to power may soon find themselves in the thick of congressional investigations. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has already made it clear that he's ready for a fight. Here are the storylines we'll be watching as the midterm elections unfold. Cost of living Most registered voters in an October Gallup survey said the economy would be either very or extremely important to their vote. Forty-two percent said gas prices would be extremely important to their decision. Americans are shelling out more at the gas pump than they were a year ago, as the Iran war has pushed up prices. Other polls suggest the cost of living is a crucial issue. Consumer spending is still strong in the US, but that's partly because higher prices are driving up nominal totals. Plus, inflation is eating away at raises. Prices have risen faster year over year than average hourly earnings for six consecutive months. AI backlash Trump may be unpopular, but building data centers is becoming an even harder sell. Polls show AI is not the top issue in the midterms, but ask a voter about building a data center in their community, and you're liable to get an earful. Across the country, candidates from both parties are racing to portray their opponents as too supportive of data center construction. This may just be the beginning. Some in tech are worried that the backlash brewing now will boil over once the 2028 presidential primaries get underway. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Mark Schiefelbein/AP Elon Musk's gigantic bet Everything is bigger in Texas, including Elon Musk's checks. The SpaceX CEO has donated at least $448 million, a historic sum. Of that total, more than $215 million has gone to America PAC, his allied super PAC. Musk's donations have been rerouted to help Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate campaign. Polls show Paxton in danger of losing, a potential result that would make it extremely difficult for Republicans to hold their majority. When he's not cutting checks, Musk is using his megaphone on X to repeatedly blast Democrats and boost Paxton at all hours of the day. "It would be game over for America," Musk wrote on X on October 30, warning what could happen if Republicans lose ground during the midterms ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Some of the other major donors Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, the billionaire founders of Uline, have donated $150 million, mostly to Restoration of America, a pro-Republican super PAC. Jeff Yass, the cofounder of the global trading and technology firm Susquehanna International Group, has donated $110 million, including $30 million to a group supporting Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio gubernatorial campaign. Rounding out the $100 million + club is George Soros, for years one of the biggest Democratic megadonors, who has given $102 million, mostly to Democracy PAC, a Soros-linked super PAC that supports Democratic candidates. Google cofounder Sergey Brin has given $102 million — not in support of federal candidates but rather in hopes of stopping California's proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires. Brin is part of a handful of tech elites who have cut large checks ahead of the midterms. Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen, two legendary venture capitalists, have donated over $92 million combined, mostly to a super PAC that supports candidates friendly to the AI industry. OpenAI President Greg Brockman and his wife, Anna, have donated $50 million, half of which went to the same pro-AI super PAC. Races to watch Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican from Ohio, walks past President Donald Trump Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Ohio Senate: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, has zeroed in on Sen. Jon Husted's previous support for data center development in one of the closest-watched Senate races. Husted has said the issue should be left to communities and no longer supports offering tax incentives for new data center construction. If Democrats want to flip the US Senate, they'll need to win in places like Ohio. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a "Toss-Up." Texas Senate: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, is trying to avoid losing a Senate seat that could decide control of the chamber. Musk has donated $158 million to the Senate Republicans' allied super PAC, which in turn was donated to a pro-Paxton